Monday Point Lookout and Hurricane Sandy

50% chance of 5-6 foot storm surge for Point Lookout Monday

Latest National Hurricane Center Storm Surge Probabilities numbers indicate 50% chance of 5-6 foot storm surge for Point Lookout / Long Beach / Lido Beach / Atlantic Beach for Monday.

Monday 11 AM update.

City of Long Beach is reporting: (noon update) LONG BEACH BRIDGE REOPENED after their earlier report:

Long Beach, New York‏@LongBeach11561

East & West Bridges are open to get out at this time, however the LB Bridge is currently closed.

i take this to mean as we said yesterday was most likely, there was flooding on the Island Park side by Starbucks?   anyone know?
i would imagine this means we should expect flooding again, most likely much worse at this eveinings next high tide(beginning probably HOURS BEFORE it).

there are some real flooding in other towns from last high tide- east rockaway, bellmore i kniow of. how are you?

rainfall and winds expected LOWER than reported yesterday

NWS Hydrometeorological Ptrediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast as of Monday

Back down to about 2 inches of rain expected as per NWS Hydrometeorological Ptrediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast as of Monday

as the storm tracks much farther south than the local sky-is-falling “news” outlets are still talking (but never showing), in fact their coverage is going with even crazier hype-up talk this morning.

NWS Warnings cone as of Monday

Monday National Hurricane Center storm track shows over 100 miles south of Long Island

did you stay or have you evacuated? any pictures, let us know.

stay safe!

Mandatory Evacuation For Long Beach Barrier Island

Just received official word from Point Lookout Civic Association…

Point Lookout
Lido Beach
Long Beach
Atlantic Beach
are under evacuation.

Loop Parkway bridge closed BEACHBOUND at 4pm today.
YOU CAN STILL EVACUATE VIA THIS OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED COASTAL EVACUATION ROUTE!
another of the media’s freak out half-information reports saying the road would be closed (CBS RADIO).

pack it up!
grab your “Go Kit”
stay safe.

Sunday and “Hurricane” Sandy in Point Lookout

Sunday National Weather Service Storm Track Prediction for Hurricane Sandy

Sunday National Weather Service Storm Track Prediction for Hurricane Sandy

Well, the storm is tracking a bit further north than yesterday’s projections, upping some of our expected effects.
Starting today’s update: to the best of our knowledge:
At the moment: only in LONG BEACH- a voluntary evacuation has been called for, other than to secure the infirm from Long Beach Hospital and neighboring elderly from Assisted Living Residences and nursing homes.

We are under a Coastal Flood Warning, meaning coastal flooding is likely.

MTA will be shutting down all service tonight at 7PM!!!
Mandatory Evacuation Far Rockaway!!

Here’s the National Weather Service Storm Surge Probability, right now showing a 50% probability for a greater than 3 foot storm surge for Long Beach, Atlantic Beach, Lido Beachh and Point Lookout, but only a 20% probability of greater than 4 foot storm surge. I would say that means at this point about 3 feet higher than normal high tides.

National Weather Service Storm Surge Probability Hurricane Sandy

National Weather Service Storm Surge Probability, about 3 feet higher than normal high tides

High tides at Jones Inlet / Point Lookout are:

Sun 28 7:06 AM EDT / 4.22 ft 7:26 PM EDT / 3.83 ft
Mon 29  Full moon 7:44 AM EDT / 4.26 ft 8:06 PM EDT / 3.77 ft
Tue 30 8:20 AM EDT / 4.24 ft 8:45 PM EDT / 3.67 ft

I would suggest at these times, especially the Monday night tide which should coincide as close as possible with the height of the storm, to watch at that time for flooding. That’s probably not the best time to be trying to leave town!
if there is flooding- you’ll probably be cut off, as the barrier beach historically floods AFTER the exit roads have -near Starbucks just over the bridge in Island Park, and Meadowbrook parkway (although the level was raised after the road was underwater in the huge noreaster in ’92.)

Is it just me, or do these things always coincide with the full moon / astronomical (as in astronomy/moon, not necessarily meaning giant!) high tides?

UPDATED RAINFALL INFORMATION

Here’s the updated Hydrometerological Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. We’re up to looking at 2-3 inches of rain over the next 3 days

Please see our previous post for all the links to related websites and information.

Have you packed a “Go Kit?”  check it out by clicking it

Ok, so we’ve cleaned up the yard, secured all the loose things (sure wish they did at the house they’re building up the street-I’ve seen sheets of plywood go flying in an everyday summertime thunderstorm with 35 mph winds).

Although I DO NOT RECOMMEND FOR ANYONE ELSE, and don’t wish to change anyone’s mind, as of now, we are not leaving.
I have secured some space with family north of Sunrise Highway, just in case.
I Wholeheartedly recommend you should make emergency arrangements to leave, as well-just in case.

On another note: we do have a real problem- we’re not big canned food eaters. not big on pasta either. we’re mostly into fresh food or make a masterpiece meal on Sunday we can reheat during the week.

I look at a can of string beans and get grossed out imagining the smushy yuckiness inside.

If the power goes out, i guess we’ve got the grill and it’ll be a race to eat the thawing food!

So what are you doing to prepare food-wise?

Preparing for Hurricane Sandy in Point Lookout, NY

National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast HPC QPF for Tropical Storm Sandy
National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Quantitative Precipitation Forecast HPC QPF for Tropical Storm Sandy

So, RUMOR (in other words TV & Radio news) has it we’re expecting possible:

    • direct hit (although the target area is like 500 miles wide)
    • 90 mph winds (?)
    • 15 ft storm surge (I think our house is 12)
    • 12 inches of rain

All this from the media who usually scream… “AAAAGGH- run for cover, take shelter, don’t leave the house-it’s going to… rain!”
I notice they’re going to milk the “hurricane” status, which they all just jumped for joy shouting “hooray-I can call it a hurricane again” although all numbers they’re showing indicate it will be downgraded to tropical storm status when making landfall.

National Weather Service- Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone
National Weather Service- Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

I prefer to keep cool and get a better sense of what is happening, but we are at about 48 hours out right now and decisions are going to have to be made.

That little voice in my head is reminding me the media are going to be WRONG. They have a habit of crying wolf, but we should all be prepare for the worst, right?

National Weather Service- Hurricane Force Wind Speed Probabilities map

National Weather Service- Hurricane Force Wind Speed Probabilities

To that end, I share the following:
PLCA have emailed links to
Town Of Hempstead – Hurricane Safety

And also how to Register for TOH Emergency Notification System
where you can be called, texted or emailed up-to-the-minute emergency information from the Town of Hempstead

Other sources:
Sea by the City in Long Beach today shared
City of Long Beach Storm Preparedness Update

NY State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services

Nassau County Office of Emergency Management (very quiet from them-this is their job most of all!!)

This arrived in the mail about 3 months ago and I have toyed with posting and discussing it, as it struck me as an offensive joke … if you don’t get it, we’ll discuss it later. For right now, I share it for what it is worth. I place a low value on it, as the county obviously does.

ridiculous, iunformation-free political mailing

bad joke? hope you remebered to “enact” the plan..if you didnt write down a friend or family member in the lines here, you’re probably out of luck!

Twitter links:
NOAA ‏@NOAA
Natl Hurricane Ctr ‏@NHC_Atlantic
National Weather Service ‏@usNWSgov
LIPA‏ @LIPAnews
NY State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services @NYSDHSES
Nassau County OEM‏ @NassauCountyOEM
NYC OEM – Notify NYC‏ @NotifyNYC
Long Beach, New York‏ @LongBeach11561

Please note-you should be able to click on the National Weather Service pictures to go to the most currently up to date version of it.

********************************************************
Saturday afternoon UPDATE…
a message from the Fire Commissioner:

With the approaching storm arriving this weekend, just a reminder to all in Point Lookout and Lido…

If you hear the Fire Siren go off in a long steady continuous wail, that is the signal that you should turn on your radio or TV for an Evacuation message. We set the siren off every Saturday as a test at 12:05 pm, so if you hear it at any other time, you need to be aware that something important is coming up. We will be using the system if there is a mandatory evacuation called by County Executive Mangano.

Now is the time to plan out what you will do in event of a storm. You may be executing it in a few days.

Please pass this info on to all your family and friends. Thank you.

Chas Thompson

Fire Commissioner

Lido-Point Lookout Fire District

Please share with us any further info, sources, ideas etc you may have

October 2012 Civic Meeting

Community_Flag_of_Point_Lookout,_NYI know! You’ve gotta be pipelined (grapevined) in to know about these meetings sometimes, and when I got the email the day before, I was glad I could make it.

Candidates’ Night

Local politicians were invited to present their case for election for “Candidates Night”.  I’ll keep my commentary out of it, except as it pertains to local issues, virtually none of which were discussed.
For US Representative, we met Frank Scaturro and Fran Becker who are running against Carolyn McCarthy. This is new for us this year as our election district changed and Pete King no longer is in our district.
For NY Assemblyman were David Sussman and Harvey Weisenberg.
All presented their cases- virtually none talked local issues,  barring Harvey Weisenberg repeating, as previously reported here, the current drinking water issues in our district are his “number one priority”.

He said “the value of your house will be zero without drinking water”.

Rumor Mill

Gas station being cleaned up of any potential contamination, then getting new underground tanks.
NO Gas station for 5 more weeks (Thanksgiving time)!

Environmental Committee

Gerry Ottavino, who heads the Environmental Committee, spoke at length about the environmental issues facing our area and our town specifically. He said the only politicians helping are Harvey Weisenberg and Denise Ford (barely). He said it was “very disconcerting … with the exception of Denise Ford, no LI Republican has demonstrated ANY concern for our drinking water.”
Everyone in this town should know has worked tirelessly to highlight and solve local issues. These include-

  • Nassau dumping untreated wastewater into the bays
  • Nassau spilling untreated waste (which is also causing part of the excessive seaweed problem we are facing)
  • getting our dredging and revetment issues put forth and the pressure to get our representatives to act.

Gerry pointed out that the beach has lost sand to the point it looked like 5 years ago, at which time dredging was scheduled and was going to be done. Right now, no beach sand is to be added anytime soon. (Anyone know where get one of those floating chairs for next year?)

Establishment of Drinking Water Committee

In light of the recent drinking water issues, Gerry is also convening a separate Drinking Water Committee, for which members are needed. If you would like to be on this committee, please contact us and we will forward him your information.

Historical Society

Not for profit status being applied for. They are requesting any items of interest you may share.   You can check the current one out by clicking here–>

Point Lookout Historical Society

New “Communications Committee”

Patrick Algier and Arthur Boodhagian decided a more interactive and kept up-to-date website are in the works.

Special thanks to the residents who turned up and asked questions of the politicians as well as the Association leaders and Kelly Curtin who actually got them to show up.

Long Beach Drinking Water Meeting

Sarah J. Meyland from NYIT presents “What You Should Know About the Lloyd Aquifer”.

“This is the most serious problem in the city’s history”-  Harvey Weisenberg, Long Beach, NY  State Assemblyman.

After 23 years in the state assembly, 2 terms as Long Beach City Council President, 20 years teaching, and living in the area for 50+ years, that’s quite a number of other problems to comapre to.   He said he’s committed to working on the problem and his track record of commitment to, and delivering on our local issues is well known.

In an evening at the Long Beach Public Library brought to us by the League of Women Voters of Long Beach, Sarah J. Meyland, Director at NYIT (New York Institute of Technology) Center for Water Resource Management gave a cool, level headed, extremely informative presentation about our drinking water.

Easy for her to be calm- she doesnt live here, but she says the people that live here should be very concerned about the seriousness of the situation.   It’s very difficult to disagree.

We need a solution to protect and preserve our drinking water. Latest test results show serious danger signs. Many are not aware-we are already on our last resort water source here on Long Beach Barrier Island. 

NYS Assemblyman Harvey Weisenberg

NYS Assemblyman Harvey Weisenberg spoke briefly: saying “it’s the biggest problem the city has ever faced” may say it all.

The presentation was attended by a pretty well-packed room including NYS Rep Harvey Weisenberg, LB City Council President Len Torres, Council Member Fran Adelson, Point Lookout Civic leaders plus dozens of concerned citizens including LBHS students. Everyone seemed moved to action. City Council President Torres said the council is “definitely on board with joining the study”.  Unfortunately, it was pointed out that the current environmental committee members would have to forward that motion (none of whom attended??)  to start that process. We’re pretty sure we don’t need a study. There was a similar meeting like this last week presented By Nassau and Suffolk County Legislators (not our legislators down here on the south shore, mind you!), promoted by Sierra Club in New Hyde Park which you can find out about here: http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/legis/LD/10/NewsRelease/2012/LD10Aquiferhearing.html

So what has happened?   The news isn’t pretty!

Long Beach and Atlantic Beach test wells show potential saltwater intrusion may be underway into Lloyd Aquifer -our “sole water resource” (that means THE ONLY PLACE WE CAN GET OUR DRINKING WATER), right below us at about 1500 feet down.

That would be a “game over” for drinking water here on the barrier beach.  There are no water pipelines from anywhere to here, no way to start cisterns and other catchment because a few feet down in our ground is salt water, so there’s nowhere to store catchment. 

These test wells were installed to give us “several years warning” of saltwater intrusion (chloride that makes it undrinkable) into the aquifer. The recent results show Atlantic Beach and Long Beach warning us RIGHT NOW!  Recent chloride tests showed:

42 ppm-Atlantic Beach

110 ppm-Long Beach “central” test well at Laurelton

15 ppm -East Long Beach

18 ppm – Jones Beach

6 ppm -Tobay Beach

This may mean that salt water is forming a plume into the fresh water,  centered on central Long Beach.

Although drinking water standards are 250 ppm, any increase is a major warning because intrusions are not gradual. The seperation between where it is all fresh water and where that becomes all salt water is very thin. There is no wide area where salt to fresh water ratios go up gradually.  If you start seeing higher numbers, YOU ARE VERY LIKELY IN THE INTRUSION NOW.

The problem is: Pumping too much water without replenishment will cause a draw of salt water inland, eventually past the point from where we can pump our drinking water.

LONG BEACH ISLAND RESIDENTS From Atlantic Beach, Long Beach, Lido Beach, and Point Lookout Need to take action NOW!

Call and ask your Long Beach, Town of Hempstead, Nassau, and New York state representatives to get involved.

SO WHAT CAN WE DO?

guess what… no one’s in charge of managing the aquifer resources.  whoever pumps, gets.  thats the job the water companies are supposed to do- they are not responsible for monitoring, conservation, management, protection…Nothing!

Although they do realize that these are in their best interests, and they have put up the money Nassau County rescinded for these purposes…for 2012 year only, and thousands of dollars short-but hey-it’s not their job the way the laws stand, so we need to get together with them, too.

The state Department of Environmental Conservation has the mandate to be in charge, but the control of the Lloyd Aquifer was taken away from them over 25 years ago because they

  • had no management plan
  • no oversight plan
  • no monitoring

and no one still does to this day.     No one even knows how much is safe to be pumping out, although by old Nassau County Estimates, we are at least 25-30% above previously discussed “safe” levels.

What is safe to say is that if we are pumping out 9% of all the water on Long Island, but the aquifer only gets 3% of the recharge water, we are beyond sustainability.  The aquifer is going to absorb from where it’s easiest, and that’s the heavier salt water pushing in, not the filtered recharge that should be coming from rainwater above.

Where do we go from here?   Ms. Meyland says we should look to other areas and how they have protected their drinking water: like the Delaware River (covering at least 4 states), Hudson River, and virtually all over the US:

Water Compacts.   A water compact is grouping of people all involved in the same water resource. It would

  • decide how much water is available
  • protect ecosystems that feed the aquifers
  • allocate it
  • have input on regulations over things that impact the water supply
  • oversee  / permit  withdrawls
  • prepare maps of water quality and the like
  • develop  and implement long range plan
  • investigate and recommend solutions to sewage and septic issues
  • conduct and publish studies
  • utilize island-wide models to monitor aquifers

Like to get fresh water at your house?  Then YOUR involvement will be needed.  If you were at this meeting, please contact us.

Coming soon, we will be posting a litttle more on the science involved to help get the word out so everyone can act with the most accurate information and understanding of the situation.

Please take a minute to share this information on any of the buttons below with everyone you know, especially on the South Shore. Other water districts in between are or will be impacted too, and it’s being decided on that NYC will also be tapping our water resources again -that’s you Valley Stream etc.!