This week’s Noreaster -update2

high tide on Thursday 3/7/13. The bay was about 6 inches below the bulkhead at the Point Lookout East Marina.

I did grab this picture at high tide on Thursday. The bay was about 6 inches below the bulkhead at the Point Lookout East Marina.

We lived! Best I can tell (please correct me if I’m wrong) there was no flooding in Point Lookout, Lido Beach, Island Park or Long Beach. I guess we need more than 4 ft above astronomical high tide to do that.
I have heard reports of flooding on Lawson Blvd in Oceanside overnight Friday night March 8, 2013.

I think that once that 5 ft above high tide happens, it’s probably quickly downhill from there, as you can see from this picture, taken at around 3.5-4 feet above.

I’m a big weather report skeptic, but after Sandy it’s better to stay calm but be aware of the potential risks.

I have to say, It’s pretty hard to update you all in this non-fluid format. – as we saw on Thursday PM. No sooner had I updated that everything was fine, then literally 5 minutes later the coastal flood warnings came in.

I feel obligated to share this weather information so people have more access to actual reports, Instead of just hyped up nonsense. I do realize, at the same time, I am obligated to remind everyone to stay safe rather than sorry.

what did you see?  how did the beach make out?

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This week’s Noreaster -update1

march6noreasterupdate
Update

Long Beach City Manager has issued a statement expecting flooding from the storm in Long Beach.

find that by clicking HERE

updated expected snow totals from National Weather Service

updated expected snow totals from National Weather Service

Also, coastal flood warning just came in from National Weather Service:

high tide at Point Lookout is at 3:12AM, 3:26AM at East Rockaway, overnight tonight.

Southern Nassau

Coastal Flood Warning in effect from 2AM EST THU until 7AM EST THU

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING

WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
LOCATIONS

ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING COMMUNITIES.
TIDAL DEPARTURES

BETWEEN 2 1/2 AND 3 1/2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
WAVES AND BEACH EROSION

10 TO 15 FT BREAKING WAVES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION ALONG ATLANTIC FACING COASTLINES. LOCALIZED WASHOVERS AND ISOLATED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OF OCEAN FACING SHORELINE STRUCTURES MAY BE OBSERVED.
TIMING

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT.
IMPACTS

PREPARE FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND WAVE ACTION. NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES MAY BE NEEDED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER

AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

Blizzard Warning Update – higher snow totals expected

Coastal Flood Warning Still In Effect for this afternoon’s high tide. Point Lookout/ Jones Inlet High tide is 6:02PM this evening, and 6:29 tomorrow AM.  Tides 2-4 ft above normal with 10-13 foot waves on the ocean.

see tide Height and Time predictions here for Point Lookout/Jones Inlet

New National Weather Service Snowfall Amount Predictions

New National Weather Service Snowfall Amount Predictions

National Weather Service has just upgraded snowfall amounts for southern Nassau from 10-14 inches, now expected at 12-20 inches.

Updated Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY INTO
SATURDAY...

NYZ078>081-177-179-081730-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1800Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 20 INCHES...WITH
  LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN DEVELOPING SNOW BANDS...MAINLY
  ACROSS EASTERN SUFFOLK.

* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
  INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
  CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.
  IN ADDITION...SOME TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...
  CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Blizzard and Coastal Flood Warning Issued

National Weather Service Forecast Map as of 6PM EST, 2/7/2013

National Weather Service Forecast Map as of 6PM EST, 2/7/2013 showing Blizzard and Coastal Flood Warnings

 The National Weather Service has just doubled the snow forecast total to 10-14 inches now with whiteout conditions.High tides will be 2-4 feet above astronomical level, with possible flooding and beacxh erosion.

 from National Weather Serrvice:

BLIZZARDWARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING
 
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
LOCATIONS
 
NASSAU COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.
HAZARD TYPES
 
HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
ACCUMULATIONS
 
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 14 INCHES
 
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN DEVELOPING SNOW BANDS.
WINDS
 
NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
TEMPERATURES
 
FALLING INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES
 
ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
TIMING
 
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IMPACTS
 
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION
 
SOME TREE LIMBS WILL BE DOWNED
 
CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
 
A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
 
MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL
 
HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED
 
STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
 
 
 
 

Southern Nassau

Coastal Flood Warning in effect from 4PM EST FRI until 8PM EST FRI

 

 
 
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TO 8 PM EST FRIDAY
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
 
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TO 8 PM EST FRIDAY.
LOCATIONS
 
ALONG SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTY COAST.
TIDAL DEPARTURES
 
2 TO 4 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
WAVE ACTION
 
9 TO 13 FT BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE OCEAN FACING BEACHES.
BEACH EROSION
 
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE OCEAN FACING BEACHES.
TIMING
 
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY EVENING
 
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM.
IMPACTS
 
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND WAVE ACTION IS POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES MAY BE NEEDED. LIVES MAY BE AT RISK FOR PEOPLE WHO PUT THEMSELVES IN HARM/S WAY. ISOLATED WASHOVERS AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE MAY BE OBSERVED ALONG THE OCEAN FACING BEACHES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
 
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER
 
AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
 
SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR FRIDAY EVENING
 
COASTAL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
TIME OF
 
 
 
FORECAST TOTAL
 
..FLOOD
 
.. LOCATION
 
 
 
 
 
..HIGH TIDE
 
..WATER LEVEL
 
 
 
.CATEGORY..
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(MLLW/NGVD)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
.. E ROCKAWAY INLET NY..220 AM
 
.7.1-7.6/
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
.MODERATE.. FREEPORT GAUGE NY
 
.214 AM
 
.5.9-6.4/
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
.MODERATE.. POINT LOOKOUT NY
 
..230 AM
 
.6.7-7.3/
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
.MODERATE..